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from arXiv
#1

Turbulent damping of fast tidal oscillations by three-dimensional Rayleigh-Bénard convection with a radiating free surface

Caroline Terquem, Alexander Boone, Enrico Martinez 2026-05-06

We present three-dimensional Dedalus simulations of Rayleigh-Bénard convection with a blackbody-radiating free upper surface, subject to a low-amplitude oscillatory forcing that mimics tidal perturbations in convective envelopes of stars and planets. The forcing period is 10-100 times shorter than t

#4

Prediction of Drought and Flash Drought in Africa at the Seasonal-to-Subseasonal Scale using the Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin Framework

Stuart Edris, Amy McGovern, Jason Hickey 2026-05-05

Droughts and flash droughts (rapidly developing droughts; FDs) remain impactful events that are known to desiccate landscape and destroy crops. In particular, droughts in Africa are often more impactful than in other locations, such as the United States or Europe, due to many regions in Africa heavi

#5

Enabling Real-Time Training of a Wildfire-to-Smoke Map with Multilinear Operators

Zachary Morrow, Joseph Crockett, John D. Jakeman et al. 2026-05-05

Wildfires are a major producer of fine particulate matter, impacting human health and the electrical grid. Accurately forecasting smoke impacts over long time scales incorporates fuel treatment strategies, natural fuel succession, and stochastic events like lightning strikes. However, predicting smo

#7

Uncertainty Quantification in Forecast Comparisons

Marc-Oliver Pohle, Tanja Zahn, Sebastian Lerch 2026-05-05

Skill scores, which measure the relative improvement of a forecasting method over a benchmark via consistent scoring functions and proper scoring rules, are a standard tool in forecast evaluation, yet their sampling uncertainty is rarely rigorously quantified. With modern forecasting applications be

#8

Towards accurate extreme event likelihoods from diffusion model climate emulators

Peter Manshausen, Noah Brenowitz, Julius Berner et al. 2026-05-05

ML climate model emulators are useful for scenario planning and adaptation, allowing for cost-efficient experimentation. Recently, the diffusion model Climate in a Bottle (cBottle) has been proposed for generation of atmospheric states compatible with boundary conditions of solar position and sea su